I think we’re already pretty much there–aside from Oppenheimer, no Best Picture winner since 12 Years A Slave has been any big smash hit with the mainstream moviegoing public; it’s all critics’ favorites that people more or less stop talking about within a couple years’ of its victory. I don’t even know anyone who even saw CODA, and just last week I saw a comedian commenting on the Oscars by saying that he didn’t think anyone in the world actually saw Nomadland.

On the other hand, One Battle After Another was clearly meant to be a big movie–not just by starring DiCaprio but by costing $140 million, even if I didn’t see it on screen.