My sense is that the regime is critically weakened. Perhaps a few “barracks emperors” would rule as Supreme Leader before being killed before the Islamic Republic officially ends, but we need to start thinking now about what will replace it. Thankfully, ISIS has no influence in Shi’ite Iran, but another right-wing or Islamist government could take form as easily as a liberal democratic one. Civil wars are terrible in terms of human misery and I’ve always wanted to visit Iran but it’s been impossible, so let’s hope there’s as bloodless as possible a transition. But the will of the masses and the will of the guys with the guns aren’t necessarily the same, and Trump has no appetite for long-term commitment in the Middle East.

Worst-case would be that the opposite stays too inchoate and leaderless to gain power and a new Supreme Leader is chosen by whoever is chosen to replace the deaths on the board that elects the Supreme Leader. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), the state security force answerable only to the Supreme Leader, kind of a cross between the Marines and the Praetorian Guard and an American-designated foreign terrorist organization, will rig the election and install a puppet in the dictatorship. What the hell, the palace intrigue would be worth putting up with them.